Now A Hurricane Could Head Our Way...

Mere hours ago, I was complaining about the relentless, withering heat currently smothering New York City. How petty those concerns seem to me now. Yes, we are sitting in the middle of a 101-degree swamp, but don't get too comfortable: Hurricane Florence may be headed for New York City, possibly in time for next week's primary elections.

Before you start boarding up the windows, the National Hurricane Center (the country's highest hurricane authority) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration urges calm and caution—for now.

"There is still considerable spread in the computer model ensemble for Florence's track beyond day 5," spokesperson Dennis Feltgen tells Gothamist in an emailed statement. "Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week."

Right now, we know that Florence continues to bluster near Bermuda, menacing the island with 115 mph winds as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning. Florence currently ranks as a category 3 hurricane, and is projected to sweep in a northwestern direction over the next few days, crashing right into the East Coast between South Carolina and Southern New England on Wednesday or Thursday of next week, according to AccuWeather. Do you know what lives between South Carolina and Southern New England? All of us hunkered in these five boroughs, that's what.

Evan Duffey, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, also stressed that any solid predictions about Florence's path would be extremely premature. "Right now, it’s almost in the middle of the Atlantic," Duffey tells Gothamist. "It is over 1,000 miles away from the Northern Leeward Islands and over 1,000 miles away from Bermuda. That is an awful long way away from New York City."

(Courtesy of AccuWeather)

While Tuesday is forecasted to be the day Florence hits Bermuda, this far out, even that prediction looks cloudy at best. She could move right over the island, Duffey explains, or she could miss it entirely. Past that point, three possible scenarios could unfold: Florence might track west and hit the southern portion of the East Coast. She could swing northwest and hit the mid-Atlantic-to-New-England area. Or, she could do neither, curving away from the coast and continuing out to sea without ever making landfall. Duffey mused that this may actually be the most likely outcome, but again, it's too soon to know anything for certain.

Nevertheless, NOAA suggests making a hurricane safety plan, and it's never too soon to start hoarding swamp town sewer gator gumbo. Stay tuned for updates...